Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Testing for unit roots in time series with level shifts
Tests for unit roots in univariate time series with level shifts are proposed and investigated The level shift is assumed to occur at a known time It may be a simple one time shift which can be captured by a dummy variable or it may have a more general form which can be modeled by some general nonlinear transition function There may also be more than one shift point and there may be other deter...
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This chapter deals with seasonal time series in economics and it reviews models that can be used to forecast out-of-sample data. Some of the key properties of seasonal time series are reviewed, and various empirical examples are given for illustration. The potential limitations to seasonal adjustment are reviewed. The chapter further addresses a few basic models like the deterministic seasonali...
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We assess the usefulness of pre-testing for seasonal roots, based on the HEGY approach, for outof-sample forecasting. We show that if there are shifts in the deterministic seasonal components then the imposition of unit roots can partially robustify sequences of rolling forecasts, yielding improved forecast accuracy. We illustrate with two empirical examples where more accurate forecasts can be...
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A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates may be obtained using methods adapted from general exponential smoothing, although the Kalman filter ma...
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We consider the problem of testing for seasonal unit roots in monthly panel data. To this aim, we generalize the quarterly CHEGY test to the monthly case. This parametric test is contrasted with a new nonparametric test, which is the panel counterpart to the univariate RURS test that relies on counting extrema in time series. All methods are applied to an empirical data set on tourism in Austri...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 1997
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/s0169-2070(97)00023-x